City of Mesa Stands by Wildly Optimistic Numbers to Support Cubs Deal

As time draws closer for voters to make a decision on the proposed new Chicago Cubs spring training complex, the City of Mesa remains steadfast in claiming an economic activity benefit of $138 million annually due to the Cubs presence. This number is based on the results of January, 2010 study paid for by the city. A close look at the basis of this claim reveals that the study assumed that every person who attended every Cubs game, home or away, was a Cubs fan. In other words, nobody came to see the other team. Obviously, that is ridiculous. Even at the Cubs home games, some people are fans of the opposing team and some people are simply baseball fans who favor neither team.

Comparing the bloated Mesa assertion to some other recent claims by public agencies in support of spring training makes the $138 million number look even sillier. Here in Arizona, the City of Peoria has begun negotiations with the Mariners and Padres regarding upgrading their spring training facilities. Peoria says the two teams combined contribute $60 million of economic activity annually. And, despite the fact that attendance at the Peoria stadium outdraws the Cubs by 40%, Mesa still thinks the Cubs have an impact over twice as great. Meanwhile, over in Florida, Lee County has just decided to build the Boston Red Sox a new spring training complex. The county says the Red Sox have an impact of $21 million annually. Putting this in perspective to the Mesa claim, the Cubs generate seven times the spending of created by the Red Sox. This is really unlikely.

Finally, the City of Mesa economic activity number is based on statewide economic impact. How much money will be spent in Mesa? No one knows, including the city. But since half the spring training games are played elsewhere and no one can control where fans stay and eat, it is a safe bet that the real number is only a fraction of the public hype.